What they DON’T tell you about 5G says more…
With the new Mobility Report out from Ericsson, I feel it’s nice to read what free reports from credible vendors are saying, but it’s more important to read what they are NOT saying. One has to remember that the end objective of the authors is to sell more kit, so one really needs to learn to see beyond the spin.
Here are a few examples of what the report SHOUTS out and what it is SILENT on or just about WHISPERS, and why that is more important than what it does say !
- THE SHOUT: Impressive 5G customer numbers, everything is in billions … THE SILENCE: Most of these are just migrations from 4G to 5G with a limited if any upside for MNOs. In fact you have to go all the way down to page 27 to see the first revenue stat. A paltry 2% increase in revenue when enabling new locations by WAN (Wide Area Network). Makes me want to be Cuba Gooding Jr in Jerry Maguire, screaming “show me the money !”
- THE SHOUT: Data is just continuing to grow… THE SILENCE: A closer look shows that data growth rates have been dropping since 2019.
- THE SHOUT: The report starts with very big and bold statements that 5G subs will reach 6 Billion by 2030 … THE WHISPER: only around half are forecast to be SA connections.
- THE SHOUT: Very impressive take up stats on FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) … THE SILENCE: but why does only FWA get a mention? What happened to the other uses cases? Nothing on URLLC (Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communication)? … pretty much demonstrating current lack of success of all the “sexy” use cases we were promised.
- THE SHOUT: 6G is on its way. THE WHISPER: Surely 5G was all about Enterprises and IoT … but this only gets a mention way down on page 26 !!
- The SHOUT: Every region showing growth and promise. THE WHISPER: It’s not till we reach Japan when we read about XR (Extended Reality). No use cases mentioned for other regions.
- To be fair they do mention upfront that of the 320 operators who have launched 5G only 20% have SA.
Overall what is yet again another effort at banging the drum on “look at how successful 5G is … join the club NOW” after ignoring the spin reads like “damn ! after so many investments and the promised rush of new revenue streams and Killer apps … all we have is many customers on 4G now are on 5G and there’s a little bit of success with FWA” . If anything, having 6G right upfront in the report only adds insult to injury, We know it’s their job get the market excited about 6G, but really in this environment when operators are struggling with RoI on 5G, does touting 6G make sense?
Don’t get me wrong, I totally believe in the 5G story, the people who developed the specifications are visionaries setting the stage for a technology that will change the world but it’ll happen in good time. We just seem to be ahead of the market. MNOs are adept at selling plans made up of mins, texts and GBs to customers … but to sell use cases to enterprises is a completely different ball game. We have all gotten used to second rate white papers and blogs just shouting out baseless forecasts that put even Nostradamus to shame, but when publications coming from even credible and reputed vendors shy away from reality and instead of helping MNOs grapple with challenges only talk about the rosy side of things, we all lose.
